This spread is a combination of MIssouri not getting credit for their road win over Georgia, because of Georgia's injuries and the loss of their senior QB James Franklin. For the first reason I would say what has Florida done to be a road favorite against anyone? Florida suffered yet another injury as they lost their RB Matt Jones. Missouri did suffer a big loss with James Franklin going out, but Maty Mauk almost beat him out before the season. Mauk is a tremendous athlete a two time Ohio high school player of the year and a track star. Sure Florida's offense is elite, but they have not seen an offense like this with a running QB and big physical receivers. LSU has a great offense and is probably better than Missouri's offense, but right now MIssouri's defense is better than LSU's defense in my opinion just look at what they did against Georgia on the road compared with LSU.
Florida has no business being favorites in this game as Missouri held this team to 276 yards last year and ironically it was Franklin who cost them the 14-7 loss on the road as 17.5 point under dogs as he threw 4 interceptions. Florida does not have the offensive balance and Missouri's defensive line is ripping up the backfield setting opponents up in 3rd and long. It will be the defense that carries Missouri to a win. They are leading the SEC in turnover margin and have a turnover in 36 straight games. They are also only allowing just 36% TD's in the red zone at home. This is the furthest north Florida has traveled since 1991 and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. a winning team.
Okay Houston is a high flying scoring machine once again behind an elite passing offense right? Wrong their large outputs have been due mostly to great field position because of turnovers as they are +14 in turnover margin. BYU is not going to turn the ball over and their elite defense should shut down the rookie QB O'Korn who has been good, but not that good. Houston is only completing 58% of their passes and 39% of their third downs. BYU should be able to keep them in check as they have held opponents better than Houston to just 33% conversions. On the flip side Houston's defense is good enough to force some field goals. BYU's offense is not balanced, but rather one dimensional and Houston's red zone defense has been great holding opponents to just 56% TD's. I also see BYU slowing it down and running the ball more to avoid handing the ball back to the Houston offense. The under is 16-5 in BYU's last 21 games vs. a winning team.
